By Donald L. Kreider, Robert G. Kuller, Donald R. Ostberg, Fred W. Perkins, Lynn H. LOoomis
An advent to Linear research
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Additional info for An Introduction to Linear Analysis
Beginning in 1972, I started plotting charts of the stocks in Hutton’s recommended list. I focused my attention on those stocks the ﬁrm liked that were already in up-trends. This helped considerably for a few years. However, the bear market of 1973–1974 destroyed that theory. Charting stocks was useful in picking stocks, but it failed to help me with the big economic picture. The term for this in the investment community is “macro analysis,” a top-down approach to investing. Macro analysis assumes that if you are correct on the trend of the economy, and the overall trend of the stock market, you can take positions when the time is most favorable and avoid the stock market at other times.
This is called the Law of Reciprocal Expectations. The next morning, I called my clients and advised them to sell energy stocks. Most of them did because they knew my theories of contrary or divergent behavior and had proﬁted from them in the past. Unfortunately, some of my newer clients were still ingrained in their old ways—accepting what they saw on television—and did not yet know how to correctly use the media and market experts who made their living advising the public. They 33 The Vital Few versus The Trivial Many learned the hard way.
It has a sales force (reporters), it has revenue (advertising), and it has expenses (salaries). General Electric wants a good return on their investment and the celebrity reporters on CNBC want to keep their jobs. Both groups need viewers, and the best way to get them is to report endlessly about the stock market, constantly looking for provocative issues to discuss. Unfortunately, most of the market analysts they feature are part of Pareto’s Trivial Many. The Vital Few generally do not need to promote themselves and are too busy to take time to appear on television.
An Introduction to Linear Analysis by Donald L. Kreider, Robert G. Kuller, Donald R. Ostberg, Fred W. Perkins, Lynn H. LOoomis